Investing Questions

+How do you predict which are the best stocks to invest in?

My Statistics PhD research is in stock market volatility forecasting and prediction, and I'm proficient in advanced data analysis, so I basically use computer algorithms to find undervalued stocks based on statistical models that I implement.

+Why don't you recommend any penny stocks?

Many people like penny stocks because they're cheap stocks that can offer big gains if their price appreciates. However, they're cheap because there are some major problems in the company.

Unfortunately, penny stocks attract some market manipulators and stock promoters. These people would buy a penny stock for a low price, and then flood online forums and mailing lists with posts recommending the stock to drive its price up, after which they sell the stock for profit, leaving the gullible investors with a bad investment.

There's probably some money to be made with some good catches, but it's highly unlikely that you'll find them among the tons of garbage promoted online. I chose to stay away from the whole penny stocks frenzy, I just find it highly unethical and not worth the hassle.

Luckily, bigger companies are way more difficult to have their stock prices manipulated (although some huge funds/firms sometimes pull a stunt)

+Can you please give more details about your methodology?

I'm going to explain this in a manner that doesn't assume you know anything about advanced Statistics.

In the world of data analysis, the term "noisy" is used to describe stock market data. One of the hottest areas of research is big data analysis; filtering through the noise and finding meaningful information like needles in a haystack.

Now, consider all current information we have about a stock, including the ratios, metrics, indicators, fundamentals etc. Now let's say all this information is represented by a dot in outer space. Last week, this stock had a slightly different set of information, and so it was represented by a different dot in space (but probably close to the first dot), and similarly for the week before. Thus, we can think of the stock's evolvement over time as a line that connects these dots.

If you're having trouble understanding what this line is, think of it this way: Look at the line chart of a stock price. You see how, at every point, the line represents the price at that time? Well, our line in outer space is similar. At every point, the line also represents the price of the stock at a particular time, but it also represents all other information we have about it (so we are in a very high dimensional space).

Now, different stocks will have different lines, each tracing a different path. The stock market can be represented as thousands of lines, and since each line by itself represents a lot of data, you can imagine the amount of data we are dealing with is quite large.

Now if we add external factors, such as energy prices, economic indicators and other fundamentals, we find ourselves adding more lines to the mix. Thus the evolvement of the whole market over time can be represented as an enormous collection of lines tracing different paths. Then we use computer algorithms to model the movements of these lines together, sifting through noise to find stocks that have swayed off a natural path that the model expects them to take, given movements of other stocks along their paths.

Some stocks sway off their path in directions that make them relatively undervalued (meaning their value should appreciate if they return close to the natural path predicted by the model). These are the undervalued stocks that I strive to find. I use tons of data mining and machine learning to find those stocks that have swayed off their path in this manner.

That said, of course there's a margin of error, and there will definitely be times when the algorithms and models get it wrong, but the idea is for the wins to cover more than the losses.

General Questions

+Why are you doing this for free?

I'm trying to relocate my family to a safer country and obtain or purchase legal residence/citizenship for them, so I'm hoping enough people donate that I'll be able to do that.

Keeping the website free ensures people only donate if they're really benefiting from it, and I'll try to keep it that way as long as I can afford it.

+Why add a donate button if you are making money from stocks?

Because even if I make good stock predictions, even if I somehow manage a 20% annual return, then that still means I would need $10,000 to make only $2,000 profit in an entire year.

Collecting donations from people who benefit from my predictions would hopefully bring in more than that.

+What do you mean purchase residence/citizenship? Is that even possible?

Yes. In this world, money fixes most of our problems. In fact, it turns out you can literally (and legally) buy residence and citizenship to most western countries, including the US/Canada. It costs hundreds of thousands of dollars per person, but it can be done.

+Why did you pick the pseudonym "Syrian Statistician"?

I didn't, the world did.

  • Try opening a bank account somewhere, and you'll likely get the response of "Ummm sorry Sir, you're Syrian....bla bla...regulations...bla bla...sanctions...bla bla...restrictions"
  • Try applying for a job (particularly in the Middle East), the interview could go amazingly well, but as soon as they discover your origin, "Ohhhhh...Syrian..." (This time there's no "bla bla", they just won't call you back. Happened to many people I know).
  • Try staying at your job, and you could very well be fired just because you're Syrian (yes, this did happen to some people right out the blue due to new regulations).
  • Try applying for residence/visa to any country, even if you're highly qualified, you will need God to descend from the heavens to grant it to you.
I could go on, but you get the idea. I simply decided to embrace the label that the world has placed on us. I am indeed Syrian....I am... The Syrian Statistician.